Shashikesh Ranjan
Date: 12-10-26 16:45
When Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed their first mutual defence pact on 17 September 2025, a senior Saudi official described it to Reuters as a comprehensive defensive agreement encompassing all military means. The phrase stopped short of mentioning nuclear weapons while inviting the inference. Observers had long suggested the kingdom might benefit from a Pakistani nuclear umbrella, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said Saudi Arabia would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran acquired one. The agreement was read through a nuclear lens from its first day, and neither government chose to adjust it.
Eleven months later the arrangement acquired a third member and a new name. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 7 August 2026. It pledges collective deterrence against any act of aggression and includes an attack-on-one-is-attack-on-all clause. The nuclear fact sits in commentary, not in the text: AFP described the grouping as NATO’s second-largest army joined to the Islamic world’s only nuclear-armed state and the leading Gulf power. No official in Islamabad, Riyadh or Ankara has said that Pakistan’s arsenal covers either partner, and no Pakistani official has linked it to Iran. The nuclear dimension exists in commentary and in the arithmetic of the alliance, but not in any declaration.
The arithmetic is simple. Pakistan has the largest standing army of the three, at 660,000, with 1,397 aircraft and 2,677 tanks. Its defence budget of $9.1bn is a fraction of Saudi Arabia’s $63.9bn and well below Turkey’s $51.4bn. Islamabad’s distinctive contribution is therefore the one category money cannot buy quickly. Dania Thafer of the Gulf International Forum says Riyadh wants the pact to move from political declaration to deterrent, which is why the question keeps returning even though no document answers it.
For Iran, geography adds a sharper edge. Pakistan shares a border of roughly 900 kilometres with it and has been the principal intermediary between Tehran and Washington on a file that includes Iran’s own nuclear programme. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding of 17 June opened a path towards a wider agreement covering the programme, sanctions relief and maritime security. Pakistan has thus been mediating the nuclear file with Iran while party to a treaty with a state whose leader has spoken of matching an Iranian bomb. Tehran has not raised the point. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for self-reliance and genuine brotherhood among neighbours, naming neither the pact nor Pakistan’s arsenal, Iran International reported.
The 5 October activation concerned a Yemeni militia and its missiles and drones. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies described the deployments under discussion as defensive, with Turkey signalling air-defence systems and Pakistan already providing support inside Saudi Arabia. Pakistan sent fighter jets and support aircraft to the kingdom in April after Iranian strikes on Saudi energy sites, Reuters reported, and that episode also passed without any public reference to nuclear weapons. The conventional record is what Pakistan has actually shown of its commitment to Riyadh.
Three facts can be relied on. The Saudi crown prince has said what he would do if Iran obtained a weapon. A senior Saudi official has described the 2025 agreement as covering all military means, without mentioning nuclear sharing. And the 5 October activation dealt with forces and capabilities for Saudi territory and said nothing about unconventional weapons.
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